Polar Science Center, Applied Physics Laboratory
University of Washingon, Seattle, Washington

 
 
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2011 Prediction Season

End of July 2011: This prediction is made with model data from July 2011. The best single predictor is the fraction of the area with open water or ice less than 1.0 m thick, G1.0. This predictor explains 82% of the variance. The predicted extent in September is 4.08 +/- 0.37 million square kilometers (orange star below). It is essentially unchanged from our prediction last month. If the prediction is accurate it will be a new record low (the 2007 record low was 4.3 M sq km), however the previous record is within the error bars of the prediction. The region most influential in making the prediction is a broad area stretchng from the Beaufort Sea to the Kara Sea (right map in the figure) where there is a greater than normal fraction of thin ice (middle map) and the G1.0 variable has a significant correlation with the September ice extent (left map). The top figure shows the time series of the observed September ice extent (solid line), the predictions of the satistical method for past years (cyan diamonds), and the prediction for this year (orange star and error bars). The error bars are the standard deviation of the error in the fit of the regression. The trend line (dashed) and the prediction of the trend line (black star) are also shown.

end of July prediction

 

 

 

End of June 2011: This prediction is made with model data from June 2011. The best single predictor is the fraction of the area with open water or ice less than 1.0 m thick, G1.0. This predictor explains 81% of the variance. The predicted extent in September is 4.14 +/- 0.39 million square kilometers (orange star below). The region most influential in making the prediction is a broad area stretchng from the Beaufort Sea to the Kara Sea (right map in the figure) where there is a greater than normal fraction of thin ice (middle map) and the G1.0 variable has a significant correlation with the September ice extent (left map). The top figure shows the time series of the observed September ice extent (solid line), the predictions of the satistical method for past years (cyan diamonds), and the prediction for this year (orange star and error bars). The error bars are the standard deviation of the error in the fit of the regression. The trend line (dashed) and the prediction of the trend line (black star) are also shown.

end of June prediction

 

 

End of May 2011: This prediction is made with model data from May 2011. The best single predictor is the fraction of the area with open water or ice less than 1.0 m thick, G1.0. This predictor explains 77% of the variance. The predicted extent in September is 4.89 +/- 0.42 million square kilometers (orange star below). This is very close to what the trend line predicts and to what was observed last September, however the error bars are still quite large, but smaller than that of the trend line prediction (5.08 +/- 0.57 milion sq km, black star).

end of May prediction

 

 

End of April 2011: Our first prediction is made with model data from April 2011. The best single predictor is the fraction of the area with open water or ice less than 1.0 m thick, G1.0. This predictor explains 69% of the variance. The predicted extent in September is 4.90 +/- 0.49 million square kilometers.

2010 prediction from March