Introduction The high-resolution
hindcast and ensemble forecast of sea ice in the Bering Sea is part of
the NSF Bering Ecosystem Study (BEST). Detailed information about our
project can be found in the project website. The hindcast and ensemble
forecast are based on a synthesis of a
model, NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, and satellite
observations of ice concentration. The model is the Bering Ecosystem STudy ice-ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (BESTMAS,Zhang
et
al,
2010).
The ensemble predictions are
constructed by using the NCEP/NCAR atmospheric forcing
from the previous 7 years (corresponding to 7 ensemble members) and the
BESTMAS
retrospectively
estimated,
with assimilation of satellite
ice
concentration
data, ice
and
ocean conditions at a
given date at which ensemble
predictions start. Details about the ensemble prediction
procedure may
be found in Zhang
et
al.,
2008. Movie:
Hindcast/Forecast of 2011 Bering Ice (Forecast starts on 7/1/2011) (To view the movie
frame by frame, download it and use the free QuickTime Player
to open
it)
The purpose of
the ensemble forecast of the Bering Sea
ice cover is for
scientific research and education only. There
are many uncertainties with the forecast and the results must be
viewed with caution. The work is conducted at
the Polar
Science Center, Applied Physics Laboratory, University of
Washington. Support is provided by NSF.
Neither the Government nor the University of Washington nor any
individual person makes any warranty, expressed or implied, or assumes
any responsibility or liability for the use of the prediction results
or any other results in this web site.
