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High-Resolution Hindcast and Ensemble Forecast of Sea Ice in the Bering Sea

Funded by NSF Office of Polar Programs,
Grant ARC0611967
Jinlun Zhang and Rebecca Woodgate
University of Washington

[ Home ] [ Introduction ] [ Model ] [ Retrospection ] [ Future Projection ] [ Data ] [Source Code] [ Publications ] [ Links ]

Introduction
The high-resolution hindcast and ensemble forecast of sea ice in the Bering Sea is part of the NSF Bering Ecosystem Study (BEST). Detailed information about our project can be found in the project website. The hindcast and ensemble forecast are based on a synthesis of a model, NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, and satellite observations of ice concentration. The model is the Bering Ecosystem STudy ice-ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (BESTMAS, Zhang et al, 2010). The ensemble predictions are constructed by using the NCEP/NCAR atmospheric forcing from the previous 7 years (corresponding to 7 ensemble members) and the BESTMAS retrospectively estimated,  with assimilation of satellite ice concentration data, ice and ocean conditions at a given date at which ensemble predictions start. Details about the ensemble prediction procedure may be found in Zhang et al., 2008.

Movie: Hindcast/Forecast of 2011 Bering Ice (Forecast starts on 7/1/2011)
(To view the movie frame by frame, download it and use the free QuickTime Player to open it)

arctic sea ice extent



Link to Sea Ice for Walrus Outlook Website


Important Notice

The purpose of the ensemble forecast of the Bering Sea ice cover is for scientific research and education only. There are many uncertainties with the forecast and the results must be viewed with caution. The work is conducted at the Polar Science Center, Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington. Support is provided by NSF. Neither the Government nor the University of Washington nor any individual person makes any warranty, expressed or implied, or assumes any responsibility or liability for the use of the prediction results or any other results in this web site.

References

Zhang, J., R. Woodgate, and R. Moritz: Sea ice response to atmospheric and oceanic forcing in the Bering Sea, J. Phys. Oceanogr., accepted, 2010.

Zhang, J., M. Steele, R.W. Lindsay, A. Schweiger, and J. Morison, Ensemble one-year predictions of arctic sea ice for the spring and summer of 2008, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L08502, doi:10.1029/2008GL033244, 2008.



[ Home ] [ Introduction ] [ Model ] [ Retrospection ] [ Future Projection ] [ Data ] [Source Code] [ Publications ] [ Links ]