Jinlun Zhang's Research Page

Polar Science Center, Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington
1013 NE 40th St., Seattle, WA 98105, 206-543-5569,  zhang@apl.washington.edu

Welcome to my research page! My current research interests can be found here. The following web sites and refereed publications might interest you. Check them out!

PIOMAS Data Sets

PIOMAS Sea Ice Volume

Global Sea Ice (GIOMAS) Data Sets

Seasonal Ensemble Forecasts of Arctic Sea Ice
Retrospective Investigation and Future Projection of Arctic Ice-Ocean Climate Change (with Data Sets)

Bering Sea Climate and Ecosystem Study

Arctic Physical and Biological Synthesis and Modeling

Variability and Trends in Antarctic Sea Ice

Ecosystem Response to Changing Sea Ice and Upper Ocean Physics in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas

Refereed Publications (reverse chronological order)

Banas, N. S., J. Zhang, R. G. Campbell, R. N. Sambrotto, M. W. Lomas, E. Sherr, B. Sherr, C. Ashjian, D. Stoecker, and E. J. Lessard, Spring plankton dynamics in the Eastern Bering Sea, 1971-2050: Mechanisms of interannual variability diagnosed with a numerical model, J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, 121, doi:10.1002/2015JC011449, 2016.

Jin, M., E. E. Popova, J. Zhang,, R. Ji, D. Pendleton,, Ø. Varpe, A. Yool, and Y.J. Lee, Ecosystem model intercomparison of under-ice and total primary production in the Arctic Ocean, J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, 121, 934-948, doi:10.1002/2015JC010770, 2016.

Bieniek, P. A., U. S. Bhatt, D. A. Walker, M. K. Raynolds, J. C. Comiso, H. E. Epstein, J. E. Pinzon, C. J. Tucker, R. L. Thoman, H. Tran, N. Mölders, M. Steele, J. Zhang, and W. Ermold, Climate drivers linked to changing seasonality of Alaska coastal tundra vegetation productivity. Earth Interactions, 19, No. 19, 2015.

Schweiger, A., and J. Zhang, Accuracy of short-term sea ice drift forecasts using a coupled ice-ocean model, J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, 120, doi:10.1002/2015JC011237, 2015.

Nazarenko, L. and others including J. Zhang, Future climate change under RCP emission scenarios with GISS ModelE2. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 7, 244-267, doi:10.1002/2014MS000403, 2015.

Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., R. I. Cullather, W. Wang, J. Zhang, and C. M. Bitz, Model forecast skill and sensitivity to initial conditions in the seasonal Sea Ice Outlook, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 8042-8048, doi:10.1002/2015GL0658, 2015.

Collow, T.W., W. Wang, A. Kumar, and J. Zhang, Improving Arctic sea ice prediction using PIOMAS initial sea ice thickness in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model, Mon. Wea. Rev., 143, 4618-4630, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0097.1, 2015.

Zhang, J., C. Ashjian, R. Campbell, Y.H. Spitz, M. Steele, and V. Hill, The influence of sea ice and snow cover and nutrient availability on the formation of massive under-ice phytoplankton blooms in the Chukchi Sea, Deep-Sea Res. II, 118, 122-135, doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2015.02.008, 2015.

Zhang, J., A. Schweiger, M. Steele, and H. Stern, Sea ice floe size distribution in the marginal ice zone: Theory and numerical experiments, J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, 120, doi:10.1002/2015JC010770, 2015.

Steele, M., S. Dickinson, J. Zhang, and R.W. Lindsay, Seasonal ice loss in the Beaufort Sea: Toward synchrony and prediction, J. Geophy. Res., 120, 1118-1132, doi: 10.1002/2014JC010247, 2015.

Schmidt, G.A. and others including J. Zhang, Configuration and assessment of the GISS ModelE2 contributions to the CMIP5 archive, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 6, no. 2, 141-184, doi:10.1002/2013MS000265, 2014.

Miller, R.L. and others including J. Zhang, CMIP5 historical simulations (1850-2012) with GISS ModelE2, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 6, no. 2, 441-477, doi:10.1002/2013MS000266, 2014.

Clement Kinney, J., W. Maslowski, Y. Aksenov, B. de Cuevas, J. Jakacki, A. Nguyen, R. Osinski, M. Steele, R.A. Woodgate, and J. Zhang,  On the flow through Bering Strait: A synthesis of model results and observations, Chapter 7, in The Pacific Arctic Region: Ecosystem Status and Trends in a Rapidly Changing Environment, J. M. Grebmeier and W. Maslowski (eds.), doi 10.1007/978-94-017-8863-2_4, 2014.

Wang, J., H. Eicken, Y. Yu, X. Bai, J. Zhang, H. Hu, D-R. Wang, M. Ikeda, K. Mizobata, and J. Overland,  Abrupt climate changes and emerging ice-ocean processes in the Pacific Arctic region and the Bering Sea, Chapter 4, in The Pacific Arctic Region: Ecosystem Status and Trends in a Rapidly Changing Environment, J. M. Grebmeier and W. Maslowski (eds.), doi 10.1007/978-94-017-8863-2_4, 2014.

Lindsay, R., M. Wensnahan, A. Schweiger, and J. Zhang, Evaluation of seven different atmospheric reanalysis products in the Arctic, J. Climate, 27, 2588-2606, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00014.s1, 2014.

Martin, T., M. Steele, and J. Zhang, Seasonality and long-term trend of Arctic Ocean surface stress in a model, J. Geophy. Res., 119, 1723-1738, doi:10.1002/2013JC009425, 2014.

Peralta‐Ferriz, C., J.H. Morison, J.M. Wallace, J.A. Bonin, and J. Zhang, Arctic Ocean circulation patterns revealed by GRACE, J. Climate, 27, 1445-1468, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00013.1, 2014.

Zhang, J., C. Ashjian, R. Campbell, V. Hill, Y.H. Spitz, and M. Steele, The great 2012 Arctic Ocean summer cyclone enhanced biological productivity on the shelves, J. Geophy. Res., 119, 1-16, doi:10.1002/2013JC009301, 2014.

Zhang, J., Modeling the impact of wind intensification on Antarctic sea ice volume, J. Climate, 27, 202-214, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00139.1, 2014.

Huntington, H.P.,  G. Noongwook, N.A. Bond, B. Benter, J.A. Snyder, and J. Zhang, The influence of wind and ice on spring walrus hunting success on St. Lawrence Island, Alaska, Deep-Sea Res. II, 94, doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2013.03.016, 312-322, 2013.

Laxon, W.S,  K. A. Giles, A. L. Ridout, D. J. Wingham, R. W., R.Cullen, R. Kwok, A. Schweiger, J. Zhang, C. Haas, S. Hendricks, R. Krishfield, N.Kurtz, S Farrell, M Davidson, CryoSat-2 estimates of Arctic sea ice thickness and volume, Geophys. Res. Lett., doi:10.1002/grl.5019, 2013.

Zhang, J., R. Lindsay, A. Schweiger, and M. Steele, The impact of an intense summer cyclone on 2012 Arctic sea ice retreat, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, doi:10.1002/grl.50190, 2013.

Zhang, J., R. Lindsay, A. Schweiger, and I. Rigor,  Recent changes in the dynamic properties of declining Arctic sea ice: A model study, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L20503, doi:10.1029/2012GL053545, 2012.

Lindsay, R., C. Haas, S. Hendricks, P. Hunkeler, N. Kurtz, J. Paden, B. Panzer, J. Sonntag, J. Yungel, and J. Zhang, Seasonal forecasts of Arctic sea ice initialized with observations of ice thickness, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L21502, doi:10.1029/2010GL053576, 2012.

Danielson, S., T. Weingartner, K. Aagaard, J. Zhang, and R. Woodgate, Circulation on the central Bering Sea shelf, July 2008 to July 2010, J. Geophys. Res., 117, C10003, doi:10.1029/2012JC008303, 2012.

Jahn, A., Y. Aksenov, B. A. de Cuevas, L. de Steur, S. Hakkine, E. Hansen, C. Herbaut, M.-N. Houssais, M. Karcher, M. Karcher, C. Lique, A. Nguyen, P. Pemberton, D. Worthen, and J. Zhang, Arctic Ocean freshwater: How robust are model simulations? J. Geophy. Res., 117, C00D16, doi: 10.1029/2012JC007907, 2012.

Popova, E.E., A. Yool, A. C. Coward, F. Dupont, C. Deal, S. Elliott, E. Hunke, M. Jin, M. Steele, and J. Zhang, What controls primary production in the Arctic Ocean? Results from an ecosystem model intercomparison, J. Geophys. Res., 117, C00D12, doi:10.1029/2011JC007112, 2012.

Zhang, J., R. Woodgate, and S. Mangiameli, Towards seasonal prediction of the distribution and extent of cold bottom waters on the Bering Sea shelf, Deep-Sea Res. II, 65-70, doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2012.02.023, 58-71, 2012.

Ravens, T. M., B.M. Jones, J. Zhang, C.D. Arp, and J. A. Schmutz,  Process-Based Coastal Erosion Modeling for Drew Point, North Slope, Alaska, J. Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering, 138(2), 122-130, 2012.

Johnson, M., A. Proshutinsky, Y. Aksenov, A.T. Nguyen, R. Lindsay, C. Haas, J. Zhang, N. Diansky, R. Kwok, W. Maslowski, S. Hakkine, I. Ashik, and Beverly de Cuevas,  Evaluation of Arctic sea ice thickness simulated by Arctic Ocean Model Intercomparison Project models, J. Geophy. Res., 117, C00D13, doi: 10.1029/2011JC007257, 2012.

Steele, M., W. Ermold, and J. Zhang, Modeling the formation and fate of the near-surface temperature maximum in the Canadian Basin of the Arctic Ocean, J. Geophy. Res., 116, C11015, doi: 10.1029/2010JC006803, 2011.

Peralta‐Ferriz, C., J.H. Morison, J.M. Wallace, and J. Zhang,  A basin-coherent mode of sub-monthly variability in Arctic Ocean bottom pressure, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L14606, doi:10.1029/2011GL048142, 2011.

Schweiger, A., R.W. Lindsay, J. Zhang, M. Steele, H. Stern, and R. Kwok, Uncertainty in modeled Arctic sea ice volume, J. Geophy. Res., 116, C00D06, doi: 10.1029/2011JC007084, 2011.

Steele, M., J. Zhang, and W. Ermold, Mechanisms of summertime upper Arctic Ocean warming and the effect on sea ice melt, J. Geophy. Res., 115, C11004, doi: 10.1029/2009JC005849, 2010.

Zhang, J., M. Steele, and A. Schweiger, Arctic sea ice response to atmospheric forcings with varying levels of anthropogenic warming and climate variability, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L20505, doi:10.1029/2010GL044988, 2010.

Zhang, J., Y.H. Spitz, M. Steele, C. Ashjian, R. Campbell, L. Berline, and P. Matrai, Modeling the impact of declining sea ice on the Arctic marine planktonic ecosystem, J. Geophy. Res., 115, C10015, doi: 10.1029/2009JC005387, 2010.

Panteleev, G., D. A. Nechaev, A. Proshutinsky, R. Woodgate, and J. Zhang, Reconstruction and analysis of the Chukchi Sea circulation in 1990-1991, J. Geophys Res., 115, C08023, doi: 10.1029/2009JC005453, 2010.

Zhang, J., R. Woodgate, and R. Moritz, Sea ice response to atmospheric and oceanic forcing in the Bering Sea, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 40, 1729-1747, doi:10.1175/2010JPO4323.1, 2010.

Wang, J., J. Zhang, E. Watanabe, M. Ikeda, K. Mizobata, J. E. Walsh, X. Bai, and B. Wu, Is the Dipole Anomaly a major driver to record lows in Arctic summer sea ice extent?, Geophys. Res Lett., 36, L05706, doi:10.1029/2008GL036706, 2009.

Rawlins, M.A., M. Steele, M.C. Serreze, C.J. Vorosmarty, W. Ermold, R.B. Lammers, K.C. McDonald, T.M.Pavelsky, A. Shiklomanov, and J. Zhang, Tracing freshwater anomalies through the air-land-ocean system: A case study from the Mackenzie River basin and the Beaufort Gyre, Atmosphere-Ocean 47(1), 79-97, doi:10.3137/OC301.2009, 2009.

Lindsay, R. W., J. Zhang, A. Schweiger, M. Steele, and H. Stern, Arctic sea ice retreat in 2007 follows thinning trend. J. Clim., 22, 165-176, doi:10.1175/2008JCL12521, 2009.

Zhang, J., M. Steele, and R. Woodgate, The role of Pacific water in the dramatic retreat of arctic sea ice during summer 2007, J. Polar Science, 19(2), 93-107, 2008.

Kwok, R., E. C. Hunke, W. Maslowski, D. Menemenlis, and J. Zhang, Variability of sea ice simulations assessed with RGPS kinematics, J. Geophys Res., 113, C11012, doi: 10.1029/2008JC004783, 2008.

Zhang, J., R.W. Lindsay, M. Steele, and A. Schweiger, What drove the dramatic retreat of Arctic sea ice during summer 2007? Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L11505, doi:10.1029/2008GL034005, 2008.

Schweiger, A., J. Zhang, R.W. Lindsay, and M. Steele, Did unusually sunny skies help drive the record sea ice minimum of 2007? Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L10503, doi:10.1029/2008GL033463, 2008.

Zhang, J., M. Steele, R.W. Lindsay, A. Schweiger, and J. Morison, Ensemble one-year predictions of arctic sea ice for the spring and summer of 2008. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L08502, doi:10.1029/2008GL033244, 2008.

Steele, M., W. Ermold, and J. Zhang, Arctic Ocean surface warming trends over the past 100 years, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L02614, 2008.

Lindsay, R. W., J. Zhang, A. Schweiger, and M. Steele, Seasonal predictions of ice extent in the Arctic Ocean. J. Geophys. Res., 113, C02023, doi:10.1029/2007JC004259, 2008.

Zhang, J., Increasing Antarctic sea ice under warming atmospheric and oceanic conditions, J. Climate, 202515-2529,  2007.

Serreze, M. C., A. P. Barrett, A. G. Slater, M. Steele, J. Zhang, and K. E. Trenberth, The large-scale energy budget of the Arctic, J. Geophys Res., 112, D11122, doi: 10.1029/2006JD008230, 2007.

Proshutinsky, A. et al. including J. Zhang, Sea level variability in the Arctic Ocean from AOMIP models, J. Geophys. Res.,112, C04S08, doi:10.1029/2006JC003916, 2007.

Karcher, M., F. Kauker, R. Gerdes, E. Hunke, and J. Zhang, On the dynamics of Atlantic Water circulation in the Arctic Ocean, J. Geophys. Res.,112, C04S02, doi:10.1029/2006JC003630, 2007.

Häkkinen, S., F. Dupont, M. Karcher, F. Kauker, D. Worthen, and J. Zhang, Model simulation of Greenland Sea upper-ocean variability, J. Geophys. Res., 112, C06S90, doi:10.1029/2006JC003687, 2007.

Zhang, J., and M. Steele, The effect of vertical mixing on the Atlantic water layer circulation in the Arctic Ocean, J. Geophys. Res.,112, C04S04, doi:10.1029/2006JC003732, 2007.

Holloway G., F. Dupont, E. Golubeva, S. Hakkinen, E. Hunke, M. Jin, M. Karcher, F. Kauker, M. Maltrud, M. A. Morales Maqueda, W. Maslowski, G. Platov, D. Stark, M. Steele, T. Suzuki, J. Wang, and J. Zhang, Water properties and circulation in Arctic Ocean models, J. Geophys Res., 112, C04S03, doi:10.1029/2006JC003642, 2007.

Lindsay, R. W. and J. Zhang, Assimilation of ice concentration in an ice-ocean model, J. Atmos. Ocean. Tech., 23, 742-749, 2006.

Lindsay, R. W. and J. Zhang, Arctic Ocean ice thickness: modes of variability and the best locations from which to monitor them, J. Physical Ocean., 36, 496-506, 2006.

Steele, M., A. Porcelli, and J. Zhang, Origins of the SHEBA freshwater anomaly in the Mackenzie RiverGeophys. Res. Lett., 33, L09601, doi:10.1029/2005GL024813, 2006.

Proshutinsky, A. et al. including J. Zhang, Arctic Ocean study: Synthesis of model results and observations, EOS, 40(4), 2005.

Zhang, J., Warming of the arctic ice-ocean system is faster than the global average since the 1960s. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L19602, doi:10.1029/2005GL024216, 2005.

Lindsay, R. W. and J. Zhang, The thinning of arctic sea ice, 1988-2003: have we passed a tipping point? J. Climate, 18,  4879-4894, 2005.

Menemenis, D., C. Hill, A. Adcroft, J.-M. Campin, B. Cheng, B. Ciotti, I. Fukumori, P. Heimbach, C. Henze, A. Kohl, T. Lee, D. Stammer, J. Taft, and J. Zhang, NASA supercomputer improves prospects for ocean climate research, EOS, 86(9), 2005.

Zhang, J., and D.A. Rothrock, The effect of sea-ice rheology in numerical investigations of climate, J. Geophys. Res., 110, C08014, doi:10.1029/2004JC002599, 2005.

Rothrock, D.A., and J. Zhang: Arctic Ocean sea ice volume: What explains its recent depletion? J. Geophys. Res., 110, C01002, doi:10.1029/2004JC002282, 2005.

Zhang, J., M. Steele, D.A. Rothrock, and R.W. Lindsay, Increasing exchanges at Greenland-Scotland Ridge and their links with the North Atlantic Oscillation and Arctic sea ice, Geophys. Res. Letters, 31, L09307, doi:10.1029/2003GL019304, 2004.

Uotila, P., D.M. Holland, M.A. Morales Maqueda, S. Hakkinen, G. Holloway, M. Karcher, M. Steele, N. Yakovlev, J. Zhang, A. Proshutinsky: An energy-diagnostics intercomparison of coupled ice-ocean Arctic models, Ocean Modeling, 11, 1-27, 2005.

Steiner, N., G. Holloway, S. Hakkinen, D.M. Holland, M. Karcher, W. Maslowski, M. Steele, and J. Zhang: Comparing modeled streamfunction, heat and freshwater content in the Arctic Ocean, Ocean Modeling, 6, 265-284, 2004.

Zhang, J., and D.A. Rothrock: Modeling global sea ice with a thickness and enthalpy distribution model in generalized curvilinear coordinates, Mon. Wea. Rev., 131(5),  681-697, 2003.

Lindsay, R.W., J. Zhang, and D.A. Rothrock: Sea ice deformation rates from measurements and in a model, Atmos-ocean, 41(1), 35-47, 2003.

Rothrock, D.A., J. Zhang, and Y. Yu: The Arctic ice thickness anomaly of the 1990s: A consistent view from models and observations, J. Geophys. Res., 108(C3), doi:10.1029/2001JC001208, 2003.

Zhang, J., D. Thomas, D. A. Rothrock, R. Lindsay, Y. Yu, and R. Kwok: Assimilation of ice motion observations and comparisons with submarine ice thickness data, J. Geophys. Res., 108(C6), 3170, doi:10.1029/2001JC001041, 2003.

Zhang, J., and D.A. Rothrock: A thickness and enthalpy distribution sea-ice model, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 31, 2986-3001, 2001.

Steele, M., W. Ermold, S. Häkkinen, D. Holland, G. Holloway, M. Karcher, F. Kauker, W. Maslowski, N. Steiner, and J. Zhang, Adrift in the Beaufort gyre: A model intercomparison, Geophys. Res. Lett, 28(15), 2935-2938, 2001.

Yu, Y., D.A. Rothrock, and J. Zhang: Thin ice impacts on surface salt flux and ice strength: Inferences from advanced very high resolution radiometer, J. Geophys. Res., 106, 13,975-13,988, 2001.

Proshutinsky, A., M. Steele, J. Zhang, G. Holloway, N. Steiner, S. Häkkinen, D.M. Holland, R. Gerdes, C. Koeberle, M. Karcher, M. Johnson, W. Maslowski, W. Walczowski, W. Hibler, and J. Wang: Multinational effort studies differences among Arctic Ocean models. EOS, 82(51), 637-644, 2001.

Zhang, J., D.A. Rothrock, and M. Steele: Recent changes in Arctic Sea ice: The interplay between ice dynamics and thermodynamics, J. Climate, 13, 3099-3114, 2000.

Zhang, J. and D.A. Rothrock: Modeling Arctic Sea ice with an efficient plastic solution, J. Geophys. Res., 105, 3325-3338, 2000.

Forman, S.L., W. Maslowski, J.T. Andrews, D. Lubinski, M. Steele, J. Zhang, R. Lammers and B. Peterson: Researchers Explore Arctic Freshwater's Role in Ocean Circulation, EOS, Transactions, American Geophysical Union, 81(16), pages 169, 174, 2000.

Zhang, J., D.A. Rothrock, and M. Steele: Warming of the Arctic Ocean by a strengthened Atlantic inflow: Model results, Geophys. Res. Letters, 25, 1745-1748, 1998.

Zhang, J., W.D. Hibler, M. Steele, and D.A. Rothrock: Arctic ice-ocean modeling with and without climate restoring, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 28, 191-217, 1998.

Zhang, J. and W.D. Hibler: On an efficient numerical method for modeling sea ice dynamics, J. Geophys. Res., 102, 8691-8702, 1997.

Steele, M., J. Zhang, D.A. Rothrock, and H. Stern: The force balance of sea ice in a numerical model of the Arctic Ocean, J. Geophys. Res., 102, 21061-21079, 1997.

Rothrock, D.A. and J. Zhang: Surface downwelling radiative fluxes: ice model sensitivities and data accuracies, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc, D(VT)200, 119-121, 1997.

Hibler, W. D. III and J. Zhang: On the effect of ice-dynamics on oceanic thermohaline circulation. Ann. of Glaciol., 21, 361-368, 1995.

Hibler, W.D. III and J. Zhang: On the effect of ocean circulation on Arctic ice-margin variations, in The Polar Oceans and Their Role in Shaping the Global Environment, Geophysical Monograph 85, 383-397, 1994.

Hibler, W.D. III and J. Zhang: Interannual and climate characteristics of an ice ocean circulation model, in Ice in the Climate System (W.R. Peltier, editor), Springer Verlag, 633-652, 1993.

Zhang, J.: A high resolution ice-ocean model with imbedded mixed layer. Ph.D. thesis, Dartmouth College, 229 pp., 1993.

Zhang, J. and W.D. Hibler III: On the role of ocean circulation in seasonal and interannual ice-edge variations in the Bering Sea, 15, Annals of Glaciology, 1991.